As Donald Trump ’s establishment , back by France and the UK , launched aseries of projectile attackson Syrian installations allegedly used in the production or deployment of chemical weapon this weekend — and the presidentbizarrely tweeted“Mission Accomplished ! ” in a worrying signaling with compliments to his strategic insight — the question of whether Russia would retaliate on behalf of Bashar al - Assad ’s government did tend to hang over the proceedings .
So far , Russia has n’t given any sign it specify to trulyescalate the situation , possibly in part because the White House has actuallynot yet settledon a comprehensive strategy . But Pentagon representative Dana White did trot out a gonzo statistic on “ Russian trolls ” on Saturday , telling reporters , “ The Russian disinformation campaign has already begun . There has been a 2,000 percent growth in Russian troll in the last 24 hours . ”
Pentagon : “ The Russian disinformation cause has already set about . There has been a 2,000 per centum increase in Russian round in the last 24 hours.”pic.twitter.com/xVkJzAHOqs
— NBC News ( @NBCNews)April 14 , 2018
As far as statistics go , this one is very unusual indeed . That Russia does have plus dedicated to data war is well established , specially given widespread allegations Vladimir Putin directed them to interpose in the 2016 elections in favour of Trump .
In last year’sDefense Intelligence Agency reporton Russian military capabilities , the agency give a section to making the argument that “ weaponization of information is a key aspect of Russia ’s strategy and is employed in clock time of peace , crisis , and state of war , ” include spooky - sounding terms like “ information opposition ” and “ cyber - enabled psychological operations . ” One section immediately cited media coverage of “ Russian trolling , ” particularly an allegedly Kremlin - care endeavour known as the Internet Research Agency which floods comment sections and social culture medium withlow - effort propaganda :
It ’s solely plausible that Russia ’s “ Troll Army ” did mobilize and pull some weekend shifts in response to the events in Syria . It ’s much less percipient where White displume the 2,000 percent statistic from , or whether that number is peculiarly substantial — while trolls have conglomerate to talk shit or simplytry to hijack the discussionaround the events in Syria , the same could be said of most noteworthy events .
The Pentagon did not reply to a request for commentary from Gizmodo ( and we ’ll update this mail service if we hear back ) , but there ’s some things that tolerate out as fishy here .
For one , the actual affair allegedly being cite , an “ gain in Russian troll , ” is vague enough to mean just about anything . For example , does that routine admit Russian state media ? Is it a reference to sheer phone number of place , in which case it would be good to know how those office are supposedly being identify ? Or is it a measure of something like impact or meshing , which is even more problematic because those metrics areusually bullshit ? Moreover , how do we even know that said engagement — wear that is what is being measured — is careen the discussion around the Syrian intervention in any way favorable to the Russian government ?
“ I imagine there ’s a basic realness chit you’re able to do on most statistical claims , ” Tim Hartford , host of statistic podcast More or Less , told Vice . “ you’re able to just ask : Does that sound sensible ? … OK , so first , if you ’ve been given a numeral , just enquire : compared to what ? … The 2d thing is — what does the statistic actually refer to ? ”
This being the Pentagon , it ’s entirely possible this is sourced to some sort of intelligence gathering by the US . But asBuzzFeed notedin February , the source of near every news report blame Russian bots for some situation or another is Hamilton 68 , a group which essay to track “ Russian influence efforts online . ” This more or less fundamentally boils down to apagefull of the kind of meticulously gathered , but not inevitably meaningful and easy misinterpreted , metrics that anyone should be fishy of when they come up in a discussion .
Researcher Clint Watts , who works on the undertaking , essentially admitted to BuzzFeed that the grouping ’s pecker are grandiloquent bycredulousTwitter detectivetypeswho want to breathlessly wrap everything need Trump in an elaborate narrative centered around Russia .
“ I ’m not convinced on this bot matter , ” Watts told BuzzFeed . “ … They are not all in Russia . We do n’t even think they ’re all commanded in Russia — at all . We think some of them are legitimately passionate people that are just really into promoting Russia … There are certain time when it does give you capital insights , but it ’s not a one - time , I look at it for five seconds and write a newspaper publisher clause and then that ’s it . That does n’t give you any context about it . ”
In any case , “ Russian trolling ” may be the least of anyone ’s worries . PerNBC News , most experts are doubtful the projectile work stoppage will do anything to weaken Assad ’s grip on power or even set back his chemical weapon output capableness . The strike on three facilities , one in Damascus and two in Homs , may have temporarily halted production of agents like sarin , but others like chlorine are easy to get industrial byproducts that can be deployed with small effort .
Though the strikes hail as US officials have “ all but devote up on seeking the remotion of Assad more than seven twelvemonth into Syria ’s civil state of war , ” theWashington Post writes , the possibility remains that further strike could embroil the US deeper into another conflict in the region with modified prospect of a desirable outcome .
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