It ’s been a record year for breakbone fever contagion , and amidst the surge in event , investigator have been prove to pinpoint the causes . Now , a new study suggest that clime change is responsible for 19 percent of the current global dengue burden – and could soar as mellow as 60 percent if nothing is done to battle spherical thaw .

Dengue is aviral diseasethat ’s spread bymosquitobites . While most citizenry who become unbalanced with it recover after a week or so , about one in 20 people will develop severe symptom , such as jar and internal bleeding , which can be life - threatening . There also are n’t any specific treatment for the disease .

With that in mind , it ’s not honorable news that 2024 has fancy a surge in the global number of dengue fever case , with the Americas in finicky recording almost 12 million casesreportedso far this yr – there were 4.6 million in the totality of 2023 .

The new research , which was present recently at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene and is yet to be peer - review , provides grounds that one of the significant drivers of the current billow in cases is climate alteration and therising temperaturesassociated with it .

“ We looked at data on dengue fever incidence and climate mutation across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas and found that there is a clear and direct relationship between turn out temperatures and rise infections , ” said Dr Erin Mordecai , an infectious disease ecologist and the study ’s senior writer , in astatement .

There are other factor that can bestow to dengue outbreaks , such as other climate - connect phenomena like rainfall , the case of virus that are circulating , and socio - economical factor like the thriftiness and universe density .

report for such agent , the team still found that there was a family relationship with higher temperatures , observe that other inquiry has regain that dengue fever - carrying mosquito pump out more of the virus as temperature reach a range between 20 ° C and 29 ° C ( 68 ° F and 84 ° atomic number 9 ) .

The study author also looked at how the berth might alter in the future with or without efforts to combat worldwide heating . In doing so , they found that in some places now inscribe a temperature “ sweet-smelling fleck ” , like Mexico and Brazil , the number of infections could soar by as much as 150 to 200 percent over the next few decades without interference .

Globally , the growth could be as much as 60 percent , whittle down to 40 percent in the most optimistic mood modeling scenario , wherecarbon emissionsare cut importantly .

As in high spirits as those predictions might seem , the researcher still consider that they are potential an underestimate ; they could n’t make prevision for countries with a deficiency of data point but where dengue is still endemic , such as in parts of sub - Saharan Africa and South Asia .

It ’s also difficult to make prognostication where dengue has n’t really been a problem before , like the continental US . The island territory of Puerto Rico has see themost pillowcase , but outbreak have also been see in Florida and California .

“ But as more and more of the U.S. moves into that optimal temperature range for dengue , the number of locally acquired infections will likely rise , though it ’s too other to say how that will dissemble the globose burden , ” said Mordecai .

The determination were presented on November 16 at theAnnual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene .