scientific discipline is a messy , computer error fraught byplay , which is why reproducibility is so essential . unluckily , that does n’t seem to be one of psychological science ’s warm suits , according to a monolithic analysispublished yesterday in Science .

A years - farsighted effort to reproduce more than 100 psychology survey across three lead journals paint a pretty dismal picture . When re - test by main research psychologists , the conclusions of more than 60 studies on personality , family relationship , scholarship , and memory , turned out to be far less whelming . Strongly significant findings often became weaker , while decrepit meaning finding became non - existent .

“ I think we knew or suspect that the literature had trouble , but to see it so clearly , on such a expectant scale — it ’s unprecedented , ” statistician Jelte Wicherts of Tilburg University in the Netherlands told The New York Times .

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In other words , depressing as this sound , the news is n’t totally surprising . In the past few years , the Times notes that the credibility of the societal sciences has been bruise over and over :

A maven societal psychologistwas caughtfabricating data , top to more than 50 retracted paper . A top journal publisheda studysupporting the existence of ESP that was wide criticized . The journal Science pulled apolitical science paperon the result of festal canvassers on voters ’ behavior because of concern about faked data .

But most of the published works examined in the Modern Science newspaper were not maliciously fake . Rather , on re - analysis , the finding simply were n’t as potent or convincing as the authors had originally claim . There are a lot of potential explanation here , including issues with sample size and experimental design , or misunderstanding and abuse of statistical tools . These are problems that have long plague observational , data - aim sciences , from economics to cancer research :

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Dr. John Ioannidis , a theater director of Stanford University ’s Meta - Research Innovation Center , who once estimated that about half of put out results across medicine were inflated or wrong , noted the proportion in psychology was even large than he had thought . He said the problem could be even worse in other fields , including cell biota , economics , neuroscience , clinical medicine , and animal enquiry .

And that ’s something that should worry us much more than a few unfit apples . If the tools of tools of scientific enquiry are being misused on the habitue , it calls an awed lot of knowledge into question . Knowledge , mind you , that ’s already made its way into textbooks , that doctor use to prescribe medication , and that psychologists expend to treat patients .

So , do we throw up our hands in desperation and quit the scientific institution ? Certainly not . But there ’s an important wake - up call here . If 100 of sketch have all come in to the same conclusion , then there ’s a pretty right hazard we can trust it . But if one subject makes the cover of Science for a splashy , new , radical title that no one else has verify — then we should all be sure to keep our fervour normalize , and think of that scientist are human beings , too .

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[ The New York Times ]

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