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TheMilky Wayis home to millions of potentially inhabitable planets — and approximately four of them may harbour vicious alien civilization that would invadeEarthif they could , novel research place to the preprint databasearXivsuggests .
The new paper , which has not yet been peer - reviewed , poses a funny head : What are the odds that humans could one daytime get hold of a hostile alien civilisation that ’s subject of occupy our planet ?
Artist’s impression of an alien spaceship near Earth
To resolve this , sole study source Alberto Caballero — a doctorial pupil in struggle resolve at the University of Vigo in Spain — set out by looking back at human history before see out to the star .
" This paper attempts to provide an estimate of the prevalence of unfriendly extraterrestrial culture through an extrapolation of the chance that we , as the human civilization , would assail or invade an inhabitedexoplanet , " Caballero pen in the study .
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( Caballero is not an astrophysicist , but he has published a study on the infamousWow ! signal — a likely sign of extraterrestrial liveliness — in the match - reviewedInternational Journal of Astrobiology . )
To hit his estimation , Caballero first counted the numeral of country that invaded other countries between 1915 and 2022 . He found that a total of 51 of the world ’s 195 nation had launched some form of invasion during that menses . ( The U.S. sat at the top of the list , with 14 intrusion tallied in that time . ) Then , he slant each land ’s chance of launching an encroachment based on that nation ’s per centum of the global military using up . ( Again , the U.S. come top with 38 % of global military spending . )
From there , Caballero added each country ’s individual chance of stir up an encroachment , then divided the sum by the full identification number of country on Earth , ending up with what he describes as " the current human chance of invasion of an extraterrestrial civilization . "
accord to this model , the current odds of man intrude on another inhabited planet are 0.028 % . However , Caballero write , that probability refer to the current commonwealth of human civilization — and humankind are n’t presently adequate to of interstellar travel . If current rates of technical advancement clutches , then interstellar travel would n’t be possible for another 259 years , Caballero calculated using theKardashev scale — a system that categorise how advanced a civilization is based on its energy expending .
Assuming the frequency of human invasions continues to pass up over that metre at the same charge per unit that invasions have declined over the last 50 years ( an norm of minus 1.15 % per year , harmonise to Caballero ’s paper ) , then the human wash has a 0.0014 % chance of invading another major planet when we potentially become an interstellar , or Type 1 , culture 259 old age from now .
That may go like very slender betting odds — and it is , until you start multiplying it by the millions of potentially habitable planets in theMilky Way . For his last figuring , Caballero turned to a 2012 paper write in the journalMathematical SETI , in which researchers predicted that as many as 15,785 alien civilizations could theoretically share the galaxy with humanity .
Caballero concluded that less than one of the Type 1 culture — 0.22 , to be precise — would be hostile toward humans who make contact . However , the number of malicious neighbors increase to 4.42 when accounting for civilizations that , like modern world , are not yet capable of interstellar travel , Caballerotold Vice News .
" I do n’t mention the 4.42 civilisation in my composition because 1 ) we do n’t recognise whether all the civilization in the galaxy are like us … and 2 ) a culture like us would probably not stupefy a threat to another one since we do n’t have the engineering science to travel to their planet , " Caballero assure Vice .
Four uncongenial alien power does n’t seem like a lot to worry about . Furthermore , the probability that humans might contact one of these malicious civilizations — and then be occupy by them — is vanishingly modest , Caballero added .
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" The probability of extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization whose satellite we message is … around two parliamentary procedure of magnitude lower than the chance of a satellite - cause of death asteroid collision , " he compose in his paper — adding that satellite - kill asteroids , like the one that doom thedinosaurs , are 1 - in-100 - million - twelvemonth event .
Though Caballero ’s study stupefy an interesting opinion experiment , the author admit his model has limitations . The invasion probability is base on a very narrow-minded slice of human account , and it defecate many assumptions about the future ontogenesis of our species . The theoretical account also presumes that alien intelligence will have brain composition , value and horse sense of empathy alike to those of humans , which may just not be the type , Caballero told Vice .
" I did the paper based only on life as we know it , " he said . " We do n’t be intimate the idea of extraterrestrials . "
And by the looking of things , it ’ll be at least a few hundred more years until we do .
Originally published on Live Science .
